Back in 2018, it took just a short phrase to electrify a Labour conference and to show Labour was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. While not precisely soaring oratory, the words met with wild cheering as delegates rose in an impromptu ovation.
When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.
In that darkly divisive time of 2018, departing from his agreed text in this way was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in key constituencies over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.
The Shift in Position and Settled Debates
In the years since, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue had been settled by the 2019 general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Like his predecessor, his strategy has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in key seats, despite polling evidence indicates many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.
A Lid That Rattles on the EU
However, it’s now Starmer is now to be an embattled party leader. While Europe is no longer the central crisis of British politics, a lid which was tightly sealed for five years is starting to loosen once more.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up their language about the devastation that leaving the EU has caused to the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool to criticize the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.
Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has resulted in a national economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by the government. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset agreed with Brussels in 2024 offers economic benefits quantified in fractions of a percent.
Cabinet Divergence and Bolder Ideas
The chancellor is among those attempting to bypass long-standing interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people allowing youths can travel between the UK and the EU for work or study.
The deputy prime minister muses openly regarding the clear advantages of being in an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, recently voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.
Although the Europe minister, who oversees UK-EU relations, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, maintains the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. A proposal would be to announce the start of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the following election platform, with implementation only if securing a fresh mandate.
Starmer's Fundamental Scepticism
However, Starmer has most recently damping it all down on the idea by warning a return to an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the commercial agreements with the US, which he views as signature achievements of his government.
It is understood that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.
- Firstly, he thinks a customs pact is now much harder because his ministers actively diverging from EU regulations across a range of sectors, like environmental standards.
- Secondly, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain for entry into a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure in talks has convinced UK negotiators that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms with Britain and are more focused on proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is seen by key advisors in Number 10 as a reason for Britain to keep its distance from the EU.
A Bizarre Strategy & Geopolitical Considerations
This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” because of immigration. It contains a single mention of the UK, placed beside a suggestion that the US government will intervene in our politics to encourage the growth of “patriotic” parties.
However, instead of deciding that this renders the US an undependable ally, ministers reportedly fear that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by risking fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Succession Chatter & The Ghost of 2018
All of which returns us to 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not an attempt to become leader but merely an attempt to preserve the “option” of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. In fact, back then, he still supported a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.
But it’s not been lost on Downing Street note that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would stand for the leadership, is among a group of senior ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.
Aides to Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a future race to replace Starmer, insist she won’t discuss her stance on a customs union as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Clear Risk & A Prudent Reminder
The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.
It would be wise for Starmer to recall the effect that a short phrase had on his career seven years ago. Potential pathways for a major proposal on EU relations that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should prise them open himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.
