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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It commonly acts as a type of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the largest improvement is handed the prize. However, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or just the biggest upset.

However the latest competition is profoundly unique. The group of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners fading and recent also-rans rising collectively. In an typical season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's up against multiple other elite candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty following his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, he bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still